Normally I don’t believe in this whole, predicting the future thing. If you think you can reasonably predict what’s going to happen in the next 5-10 years, you’ll generally find that you’re WAY off.

But then there’s Steve… and this reflection from CNET of his interview with Rolling Stone back in 2003 a mere 8 months after introducing iTunes.

From CNET:

We were bowled over by the preciseness of Jobs’ assessment of what the future held for digital rights management, music subscription services, the four largest recording companies, and Apple.

Jobs correctly predicted that attempts by the major labels to find a technological solution to piracy would fail. When it came to subscription music services, he said the public would reject them. He foresaw a day when iTunes would sell 1 billion tracks a year–a bold statement, considering that at the time, iTunes had only sold 20 million songs.

And from the original interview itself on competing with music theft:

What’s new is this amazingly efficient distribution system for stolen property called the Internet — and no one’s gonna shut down the Internet. And it only takes one stolen copy to be on the Internet. And the way we expressed it to them is: Pick one lock — open every door. It only takes one person to pick a lock. Worst case: Somebody just takes the analog outputs of their CD player and rerecords it — puts it on the Internet. You’ll never stop that. So what you have to do is compete with it.

Our position, from the beginning, was that 80% of the people stealing music online don’t really want to be thieves. But that it is such a compelling way to get music: It’s instant gratification. You don’t have to go to the record store; the music’s already digitized, so you don’t have to rip the CD. It’s so compelling that people are willing to become thieves to do it. And to tell them that they should stop being thieves — without a legal alternative, that offers those same benefits — rings hollow. We said: We don’t see how you convince people to stop being thieves, unless you can offer them a carrot — not just a stick. And the carrot is: We’re gonna offer you a better experience … and it’s only gonna cost you a dollar a song.